Can McCain win?

Yes, of course he can.

In fact, I believe that he will win.

Yesterday I got into one of those nasty discussions that occur from time to time on the internet because I predicted that McCain would pull ahead in the final week of the campaign and win the popular vote by four points.

Earlier in the summer I had predicted that McCain should win a race against Obama by ten points. I based that prediction on the best exemplar I could find of a center-right candidate vs. a far Left candidate: the 1972 race between Nixon and McGovern, which also took place during an unpopular war. Nixon was also under unrelenting attack from the Left and the liberal media. He won by twenty points.

My prediction that McCain should win by ten points included a 36-years-later correction for the deterioration of American political common sense. Much has been forgotten and American students have been kept deliberately ignorant of the full history of their own country. But I reasoned that the majority of Americans still cannot be fooled by the Left.

Then, after the conventions, in September, when McCain seemed to be on the brink of pulling ahead of Obama, at last, the world financial crisis happened. The party in the White House took the political hit, and McCain has been behind Obama since.

But I believe that there is a huge, overwhelming case against Obama that voters sense and understand, even when they don’t know all the details. Indeed, the media is deliberately withholding the details.

This, however, is a period of intense time compression: never before in history has so much information been available in so short a time than is available to voters now.

There is very little left to be learned about John McCain over the next week and a half.

There is, on the other hand, a gargantuan case against Barack Obama. It is, literally, a tidal wave of information that argues against making him President of the United States.

I think that the majority of voters will test this information against their own consciences and find it impossible to vote for Obama. Even those who very much like the idea of voting for a young black candidate but are not otherwise enthralled by Leftist formulas for America will not, when faced with the decision in the voting booth, continue to ignore the evidence that Obama is very wrong for America. “The wrong guy at the wrong time.”

So, I see a four-point win by McCain, with sufficient state-by-state victories to give him the electoral vote as well.

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