Obama believes that economic catastrophe is on the horizon. I’ve been watching the markets for months, more closely than I ever have, and they seem stable and poised to swing into recovery.

Obama keeps pressing his case with an extremely negative psychology, and markets are not immune to that when it is coming from the head man of the United States, which has the largest economy on Earth.

But the markets also seem to be factoring in Obama as a statist pain in the ass and are still ready to move ahead and create wealth.

The question is will the so-called stimulus bill that’s exploding at the seams in Congress right now actually stimulate anything? Or will it be an economic wet blanket that stifles economic growth, prolonging the economic downturn or at best dampening the recovery?

No one knows. Why? Because it is impossible to know. Will the spending richochet around the economy at high velocity, spurring growth? Or will it settle in pools that eventually evaporate down in an inflationary hothouse? Something in between is most likely, but who knows.

The bloody thing is going to pass, so the best that can be hoped for is that the markets and the American people soldier on toward the real recovery and not allow themselves to be “stimulated” into inactivity and depression, either economic or psychological.

But we know how the credit on this thing will play out. Good strong recovery: Obama worked a miracle. Prolonged recession or dead in the water recovery: George Bush has ruined America.

Recessions are generally and paradoxically good for the economy because they break bad habits and restore good ones. But when the government bucket brigade shows up with its programs and dire expectations and concern for the little people there’s always the risk of a drowning.

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